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Rest in Peace, China Study

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I know this was all over the blogosphere yesterday but I think it’s important enough for a repost.

One thing I can count on every time I write an article extolling the health benefits of animal products is someone sending me an email or posting a comment like this:

I think you’re absolutely wrong. You should read: The China Study, by Dr. T. Collin Campbell.

Sorry to be contrary, but T. Colin Campbell’s “The China Study” should put this issue to rest. Please consider the information presented there. The methodology is impressive.

Campbell recommends a vegan diet–no animal based food at all. He claims that population studies demonstrate that vegan populations do not suffer from the high incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer that we in the West do with our diets heavy on animal protein.

In fact, those are direct quotes from comments that have been left on my blog over the past year. I can’t even show you some of the emails people have sent because the language might offend you.

Usually I direct those folks to Chris Masterjohn’s excellent critique of the China Study. Now, however, I’ll be sending them over to read Denise Minger’s freshly published China Study smackdown.

Here’s the introduction:

When I first started analyzing the original China Study data, I had no intention of writing up an actual critique of Campbell’s much-lauded book. I’m a data junkie. Numbers, along with strawberries and Audrey Hepburn films, make me a very happy girl. I mainly wanted to see for myself how closely Campbell’s claims aligned with the data he drew from—if only to satisfy my own curiosity.

But after spending a solid month and a half reading, graphing, sticky-noting, and passing out at 3 AM from studious exhaustion upon my copy of the raw China Study data, I’ve decided it’s time to voice all my criticisms. And there are many.

Denise got hold of the raw study data and took it apart with a fine-toothed comb. And what she found is that the claims Campbell made in his China Study book are not supported by the data. She also found important data points Campbell never bothered to mention in the book because they didn’t support his vegan agenda.

For example, Campbell conveniently fails to mention the county of Tuoli in China. The folks in Tuoli ate 45% of their diet as fat, 134 grams of animal protein each day (twice as much as the average American), and rarely ate vegetables or other plant foods. Yet, according to the China Study data, they were extremely healthy with low rates of cancer and heart disease; healthier, in fact, than many of the counties that were nearly vegan.

This is just one of many cases of the selective citation and data cherry picking Campbell employs in the China Study. Denise’s critique masterfully reveals the danger of drawing conclusions from epidemiological studies, which can only show correlations between variables – not causal relationships. Campbell should be well aware of this. After all, in his book he rails against the nutritional bias rampant in the scientific community. Yet nowhere is such bias more evident than in Campbell’s own interpretation of the China Study data.

Denise concludes:

Ultimately, I believe Campbell was influenced by his own expectations about animal protein and disease, leading him to seek out specific correlations in the China Study data (and elsewhere) to confirm his predictions.

Campbell’s response to previous critics of the China Study has been something to the effect of: “I’m a trained scientist. Therefore you should believe me and not my critics.” That is a weak argument – to put it mildly. You don’t need six years of graduate school to learn to think critically. Nor does having a lot of letters after your name make you immune to biased thinking or intellectual blindness. A lot of smart, educated people believed the cholesterol hypothesis for decades. But that never made it true.

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You can read more – and I mean a lot more – over at Denise’s blog. I recommend starting with her article China Study: Fact or Fallacy? For many of you, it will be more than enough. But if you’re interested in this stuff, she has written several other articles worth reading.

There are also reviews of Denise’s article at Free the Animal, Whole Health Source, Robb Wolf and PaNu. If you don’t have time to read Denise’s article, read Dr. Harris’s review at PaNu. It’s the next best thing.

Rest in peace, China Study.

P.S. You might also want to check out this debate between T. Colin Campbell and Loren Cordain on human protein requirements. Notice that Cordain’s articles contain 164 citations of research studies. How many references do Campbell’s articles contain? Zero. And Campbell’s typical “I’m more educated than the other guy” won’t fly here. Dr. Cordain has some serious chops.

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401 Comments

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  1. One reason I didn’t want to go on statins is that it seems like they somehow lower serum cholesterol readings without preventing heart attacks. That’s not to say that they don’t somewhat improve a person’s odds of dying from a heart attack, but not by as much as you’d think. And it makes sense to me that the statins could improve that one statistic without curing the disease – sounds like they treat the symptoms more than the cause of heart disease.

    However, it doesn’t mean that high cholesterol readings should be disregarded. It still means that I had a much higher risk of dying of a heart attack. If I didn’t want the statins it’s because I don’t think they help all that much, but more importantly, they have miserable side effects.

    The trouble with your reasoning (I watched the video linked above) and with Denise Minger’s (now I’ve read her article) is that neither one of you seems to understand how statistics are used to isolate risk factors. High blood cholesterol readings are just one element of risk; others include family history, smoking, etc. I’ve no doubt that if a person smokes a couple of packs a day going on a low-fat diet isn’t going to help a whole lot, but you can only sort that out from the data on heart disease by using statistics.

    Statistics are used to discover patterns. So it could be that for some reason an ethnic group, like the aborigines cited in the video, have very high cholesterol and a low incidence of heart disease. But it may be that schlepping across Australia all day in the hot sun for some reason prevents the problem. The statistics, however, show that *on average* there is a strong connection between high serum cholesterol and heart disease. Therefore, until I too make it part of my daily routine to trek across the desert, eat roasted ‘roo meat, and whatever all else may make aborigines less susceptible to heart attack (and somebody really should do a study and find out what that is), I’ll continue to watch my cholesterol.

    But truly, it’s your life, your health, and your decision. You should do what makes you happiest.

  2. High cholesterol is not an issue in most cases, and low cholesterol (<150 mg/dL) is actually associated with increased mortality, cognitive decline (including Alzheimer's), depression, low libido and several other problems. The American public has been sold a bill of goods when it comes to saturated fat, cholesterol and heart disease.

    It's all covered here: http://chriskresser.com/i-have-high-cholesterol-and-i-dont-care

  3. Thanks for the link, and I’ll be sure to read the article as well as Susan’s link to the response.

    However, I don’t get where all the anger is coming from. If you want to eat meat, or even lots of meat, you should go ahead. Even doctors not advocating a vegan diet are almost unanimous in what the likely consequences will be. But we all need to make our choices based on what’s most important to us.

    As for me, I won’t switch away from the China Diet because it dropped my way too high cholesterol 70 points in a few months. My doctor had insisted I start on cholesterol lowering-drugs immediately, but when I retested she didn’t ask what technique I’d used to achieve such dramatic results – she just said I should keep it up, and that’s just what I plan to do

    • go google “DeniseMinger ‘s response to Colin Campbell’s critic”.

      And Denise is not the only one who criticise Campbell.
      And even the best universities in the world could fail us too. They have been telling us to eating low fat since the 1960s, and obesity rate has been raising ever ever…

    • You do not need a PhD to interpret data.
      In fact you could interpret data yourself if you chose to not take either Campbell’s or Minger’s conclusions for granted.

  4. Louis and Clark were feeding their men 20-30 lbs of meat per day as I recall from reading their reports–this is public record. Could that have been true? Did some soldiers eat that much meat in the 19th century? Maybe that was simply a cow per day for 10 men and as such total weight of an animal or something? Anybody ever eat 20 lbs of meat in one day here?

  5. “I am 70yo mostly raw vegetarian for the last 20 years. I feel great.”
     
    I’d be more impressed if you were 70, in great health, and had been a vegan your entire life.
     
    “I don’t need the China Study, just one look at a slaughter house was enough for me to realize I don’t need to eat the blood and flesh of animals.”
     
    You don’t have to kill animals in order to add animal products to your diet. Animals don’t die when you consume eggs and dairy products taken from humanely-raised animals.
    You might also want to note that producing the plants you like to eat (which are themselves living things) involves killing or displacing the wildlife that inhabited the fields they’re grown in.
    Any way you dice it, if you want to eat, something is going to have to die.

    • “You don’t have to kill animals in order to add animal products to your diet. Animals don’t die when you consume eggs and dairy products taken from humanely-raised animals.”

      I thought this, too, for many years. Having just completed an on-line course (MOOC) through the University of Edinburgh called, “Animal Behavior and Welfare.” I learned that all male chicks produced by hens that have been selectively bred for maximum egg-production are killed at birth because they are worthless as meat-producing animals. The male chicks are either thrown into a grinder or, more humanely, gassed to death. Likewise, male calves born of dairy cows are either killed within a few days (sometimes having been starved for the few days it takes for the calf disposal business to arrive at the farm), raised in a small crate for a few weeks to produce veal, or sold to become beef cattle. So, it’s not really possible to say that no animal dies when eggs and dairy are included in one’s diet. The researchers at the University of Edinburgh advocate husbandry practices that minimize animal suffering, such as not starving a calf before killing it.

  6. “First of all what a nasty bunch of people you are but perhaps thats from all that meat you are eating!”
    Hey, I’m sure Hitler would agree with you! He was vegetarian too.

  7. “If it were me and I had to choose, I’d go for meat, as far as i know vitamin C is one of the only nutrients you can’t get from meat…”

    Some organ meats are high in vitamin C. Personally, I’m perfectly happy being an omnivore and getting my vitamin C from fruits and vegetables.

    I’ve experimented with both extremes and arrived at the conclusion that I feel best when there are both plant and animal foods in my diet. Note that Dr. Weston Price’s own findings don’t support the idea that a carnivorous diet is the healthiest (though I’d certainly choose a carnivorous diet over a vegan one).

    • You can prevent scurvy with anything fresh. Several Antarctic expeditions found that they got scurvy eating canned food and prevented it as long as they got some fresh meat occassionally.

  8. <BLOCKQUOTE>”I hope your teacher isn’t vegan! Or if she is, that she’s open minded.”</BLOCKQUOTE>

    If vegans had the capacity to be open-minded, they wouldn’t be vegan.

  9. I happened upon this website and saw this blog. First of all what a nasty bunch of people you are but perhaps thats from all that meat you are eating! I am 70yo mostly raw vegetarian for the last 20 years. I feel great. I don’t need the China Study, just one look at a slaughter house was enough for me to realize I don’t need to eat the blood and flesh of animals. Have you ever heard of Scott and Helen Nearing? I think they both lived to be in their 90″s and were vegetarians. One can eat meat or not and be healthy as long as diet has plenty of alternative proteins (I don’t personally eat soy) and plenty of fruits and veggies.

    • I like your comment, this is so interesting. I was curious to see if the China Study held water. Attacking it so vehemently and emotionally, belittling vegans, or anyone that does not blindly take their side doesn’t sound very open minded. I’m a vegan, my husband eats a ton of meat. We respect each others choices on the subject. You can always find evidence to back whatever you want to believe. Reading the rude, belittling comments on here make me embarrassed I ever ate meat. I understand vegans can be obnoxious, sure, but you guys have them beat. I became a vegan thanks to the way animals were treated, and after the fact noticed how incredible I felt. I lost weight, my endurance sky rocketed, and I haven’t even had a cold in years. My brother on the other hand was vegan for 2 months, then switched back to eating eggs and found he felt better. My point is, there’s evidence and scientific studies, as well as loopholes for both sides. I would have more respect for your opinions if you would have more respect for mine.

    • I see that vegetarianism has indeed improved your logics and rationality.

      I have had the opportunity to meet both my great grandparents on my father’s side. My great grand father lived to be 104.
      We come from a region of Italy where meat is a staple of diet to say the least. I have killed plenty of animals I have eaten and know where the meat comes from when I haven’t killed it myself. I even eat live animals (see oysters). I have no problem eating fruit and vegetables either. I must say lately I’ve been exercising less than I should so I have gained some weight. But my diet hasn’t changed so it must be because my metabolism has changed, or simply because I’m eating the same amount of food as when I was doing 2 hours exercise a day except I’m too lazy to do it now.

      In the family we are all omnivores. And we have all been feeling quite fine.

      What we don ‘t feel is the compelling desire to tell others that they are a nasty bunch of people because of what they eat.

  10. You guys can just ignore them. Since they can’t reason or argue properly with logic, they are now resorting to spamming all the paleo or health blogs that they can find.

  11. Well, first off, paleo eschews chronic cardio (see “marathon running”).  Second, I’d like to see these muscle-bound vegan marathoners myself.  Equating competitive athletics with actual health is such a fallacy to begin with.

  12. Gday crew,nice blog.
    How come NONE of these pro meat bloggers have any real muscle with all that protein talk? 🙂
    Come and see if ANY of you guys can out bench press/dead lift us at
    http://www.veganbodybuilding.com
    http://www.veganstrength.org
    http://www.organicathlete.org
     
    Here is the website for the doubters.
    http://www.pcrm.org
     
    Mike Arnstein ran a 2:28 marathon this year at Boston. He is the FASTEST runner in the raw food movement today. Long time vegan and now powered by sweet fruit. How come there is no competitive athletes eating this ‘paleo fat diet?’ Please shut me up and show me cos Im sick of seeing cardio and muscle deficient paleo crew trying to debunk the china study that us elite athletes are thriving on.
    Can you debunk me with a high fat eating  paleo athlete?
    Didnt think so.. 🙂
     
    Love, peace and banana grease.
     
    Durianrider
     

    • What a fantastically unscientific way of looking at it. But if it makes you feel better…

    • this might be my only response. bill rogers ran 28 marathons under 2:15. “As a kid, he put ketchup on brownies, peanut butter on eggs, mayonnaise on everything,” says Martha Chuprevich, Rodgers’s younger sister.

      oh look, another elite athlete that destroys your one reference, decades removed nonetheless. but at least you have your benching and deadlifting and whatever other manliness keeps your single digit iq sharp.

      i feel like your response is only damaging to those in defense of the china study’s recommendations/methodology/etc who search for one damn reliable truth in this and the overarching general nutrition debate.

      you sound like a big dumb animal. i’ve been reading and researching for weeks now after finishing the china study, and your comment is the only one i’ve responded to because it is so mindless, baseless, pointless, and utterly infuriating that my fingers were literally possessed.

      i’ll be looking for you when you jump on the next nutritional bandwagon and keep the same pissing-contest chest-thumping “look at mah pecs” machismo.

      • Alexandru,

        Don’t be scared off by him. I’m plant-based, and even I am doubtful of Durianrider (and his girlfriend Freelee), the pair who basically started the 30 bananas a day craze.

        Look into it more, and stay away from radical ideas. That includes people who eat one food (bananas) or suddenly decide one nutrient is the cause of all health problems (wheat).

        Nutrition should be simple, people! No one should have to tell you how to eat.

        In my personal opinion, I think meat is okay in very small, very tiny quantities. I do not think dairy is a good choice. And I think eggs can be a good protein choice if they are completely free range and pasture raised.

        That being said, I am plant-based because it is the easiest, cleanest, best for the environment and animals, and makes me feel good.

    • I would argue that ethiopian/kenyan runners do have a more paleo oriented diet than a vegan one. And they certainly are amongst the winningest marathon athletes in history

  13. I am wandering if they are cutting their own foot by criticizing Denise “over-simplified” method because she’s trying to replicate Campbell’s method.

    Exactly.  All Minger is doing is what Campbell should have done – but didn’t – in the first place.  Any criticism of the weakness of drawing conclusions fro epidemiological studies simply strengthens Minger’s critique.

  14. I am wandering if they are cutting their own foot by criticizing Denise “over-simplified” method because she’s trying to replicate Campbell’s method.

  15. I’d never heard of 30 bananas before seeing it mentioned in the comments here and then they showed up on my blog spamming my post (where I recommended people to visit Denise’s blog) with a load of links to criticisms of her analysis! Visited the site, pretty hardcore stuff.

  16. What a frightening coffin Chris. Makes it a little obnoxious. And what to do with the coffin when the study is in there? Burry or burn it? Couldn’t we just file and forget about this observational study and the often irrelevant, multi interpretable underlying data?

  17. And not to mention the lack of evidence that ANY traditional cultures followed a vegan diet. In fact, even those cultures that were predominantly vegetarian went to great lengths to obtain animal products (like shellfish or insects) to supplement their diet with.

    Since evolutionary biology tells us humans evolved eating animal products, the burden of proof is on those who claim our natural diet is somehow “unhealthy”.  And so far there’s absolutely no such proof.

  18. Not to mention the modern cultures like the Swiss and Scandinavians who consume large amounts of dairy and don’t exhibit the preponderance of “diseases of civilization” that we do.

    • That is Bs. I am From Denmark. We have the very high rates of osterporosis, cancer in all kinds and heart attacts. We also consume huge amounts of Animal products. and people here are quite heavy looking in general. same goes for norway and sweeden.